As the Iranian regime crumbles, Ayatollah Khamenei prepares a desperate escape to Moscow, echoing a historical pattern of self-preservation among authoritarian leaders.
Story Highlights
- Ayatollah Khamenei plans to flee to Moscow if protests in Iran escalate.
- The escape plan involves securing $95 billion in assets.
- Recent protests in Iran have intensified, threatening the regime’s stability.
- Moscow is seen as the sole refuge due to cultural and political ties.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s Escape Plan
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly devised a “Plan B” to flee Tehran for Moscow should nationwide protests continue to escalate. The plan, which involves fewer than 20-24 close aides and family members, is a response to the potential defection of security forces tasked with suppressing unrest. This escape strategy includes carefully mapped routes and securing $95 billion in assets through entities like Setad.
These developments come amid worsening economic conditions and intensified demonstrations in major cities like Qom. With Khamenei’s frailty becoming more apparent post-2025 Israel war, the regime’s paranoia is heightened by potential defections within its ranks, including relatives who have already settled abroad.
The Historical Context of Iran’s Protests
Protests in Iran have been a recurring theme since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Previous movements, such as the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest, highlight the enduring dissatisfaction among the Iranian populace. Khamenei, who has held power since 1989, has managed to maintain control through entities like the IRGC, Basij, and the army. However, recent strains, including a 12-day war with Israel in 2025, have exposed vulnerabilities within the regime.
As protests intensify, accusations of live fire and tear gas use by security forces have further fueled public anger. The regime views this unrest as an existential threat, prompting Khamenei to consider drastic measures, including fleeing to Moscow.
Implications of Khamenei’s Potential Flight
The short-term implications of Khamenei’s escape plan signal a vulnerability within the regime, potentially inciting further protests. In the long-term, this could lead to a power vacuum similar to Syria’s collapse, with Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, positioned as a successor. Economically, a $95 billion asset flight would drain crucial resources from Iran, eroding the regime’s legitimacy amid widespread economic hardship.
Russia stands to benefit as a rogue refuge for authoritarian leaders, while global energy markets may face volatility if chaos in Iran spreads. This situation underscores the importance of geopolitical alliances and the fragility of regimes reliant on oppressive measures to maintain power.
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Khamenei prepared to flee to Russia if unrest escalates
