College closures are on the rise as enrollment plummets and students increasingly opt for vocational training.
At a Glance
- Up to 80 colleges could face closure due to declining enrollment
- College enrollment dropped 15% between 2010 and 2021
- Freshman enrollment hit its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic
- Vocational school enrollment increased by 16% in 2023
- Small private liberal arts schools are particularly affected by these trends
The Enrollment Crisis
American higher education is facing a crisis as college closures surge amid financial strain and demographic shifts. A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suggests that annual college closures may increase significantly due to declining enrollment in higher education institutions. If the downward trend continues, up to 80 additional colleges may be forced to shut down in the near future.
The statistics paint a grim picture for many institutions. Total college and university enrollment fell by a staggering 15% from 2010 to 2021. More alarmingly, freshman college enrollment has declined by over 5%, reaching its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend is part of a larger shift in how Americans view higher education and career preparation.
As colleges deal with declining enrollment caused both by a demographic cliff leading to fewer high school graduates and by fewer students choosing to enroll, more colleges are choosing to close or merge. #GreatCollegeAdvice #CollegeClosures #HigherEdhttps://t.co/PgynfqBwJw
— Great College Advice (@collegeadvice) October 25, 2024
Factors Driving the Decline
Several factors contribute to this enrollment crisis. Demographic changes are playing a significant role, with many parts of the country experiencing a decline in the number of college-age individuals. The demographic drop-off looming in the next few years is expected to lead to an even steeper decrease in the number of 18- to 22-year-olds attending college.
“There was a steeper decline during COVID, and most people think we aren’t going back to those levels for a range of reasons. We’ve got a demographic decline in most parts of the country and the so-called ‘demographic cliff’ coming up in the next couple of years where we’re going to see an even steeper drop in the number of 18- to 22-year-olds. The percentage of recent high school graduates who decide to go to any college has also been declining,” said David Attis, the managing director of research at consulting firm EAB.
Additionally, the post-COVID-19 economy has exacerbated enrollment declines, and increased scrutiny over the value of higher education has led many potential students to reconsider their options. The drying up of pandemic-era relief funds has further strained college finances, making it harder for institutions to weather the storm.
The Rise of Vocational Training
As traditional college enrollment declines, there’s a noticeable shift towards vocational training. In 2023, enrollment in vocational schools increased by 16%, with a particularly significant 23% rise in students training to become construction workers. This trend suggests that many young Americans are opting for more direct paths to employment, prioritizing practical skills over traditional academic degrees.
This shift is particularly challenging for small private liberal arts colleges, which often rely heavily on tuition revenue. As student numbers dwindle, these institutions face severe financial strain, with some forced to make difficult decisions about their future.
The Impact of Closures
College closures have far-reaching consequences. For students, abrupt closures can disrupt their education and future plans. Many institutions are implementing “teach-out” plans to ensure students can complete their education at other institutions, but the transition is rarely seamless. For local communities, college closures can have significant economic impacts, as these institutions are often major employers in their areas.
As the higher education landscape continues to evolve, institutions are exploring various strategies to survive. Some are considering mergers or program cuts, while others are reevaluating their offerings to better align with the changing demands of students and the job market. The coming years will likely see further transformations in the American higher education system as it adapts to these challenging demographic and economic realities.
