Trump’s Heir: Vance or Rubio?

American flag with Republican elephant symbol.

President Trump is quietly grooming his successors for 2028, pitting loyal MAGA warrior JD Vance against rising star Marco Rubio in a high-stakes legacy battle that could define the future of America First conservatism.

Story Highlights

Trump informally asks advisers if VP JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio should top the 2028 Republican ticket, favoring Vance as heir apparent.
Vance leads polls decisively at 48% versus Rubio’s 9%, backed by his MAGA base appeal and VP incumbency.
Rubio gains traction through foreign policy wins like Panama Canal pressure and Venezuela operations, earning Trump’s frequent praise.
Advisers hail a potential Vance-Rubio “dream team,” with no rift between the close allies as Trump eyes midterms.
These casual discussions keep Trump relevant, avoiding lame-duck status while shaping post-Trump GOP leadership.

Trump’s Private Succession Talks Emerge

Axios reported on February 22, 2026, that President Donald Trump has casually asked advisers and confidants who should lead the Republican ticket in 2028—Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio. These discussions occur amid Trump’s focus on his legacy before midterm elections. Trump views Vance as his “heir apparent” due to the VP role but praises Rubio’s strong performance. One adviser described a Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team” with Vance on top. This strategic maneuvering sustains Trump’s influence without formal endorsements.

Vance’s Strong Position as Frontrunner

JD Vance, 42, holds a commanding lead in December 2025 RealClearPolitics polls at 48% compared to Rubio’s 9%, also dominating prediction markets. As Trump’s 2024 running mate from Ohio’s industrial heartland, Vance embodies MAGA with tech ties and aggressive stances like pressuring Ukraine. He builds presidential infrastructure while publicly calling Rubio his “closest friend” and dismissing rivalry talk as absurd. Vance’s incumbency gives him structural edge, aligning perfectly with the base that delivered Trump’s victories.

Trump called Vance “perhaps the frontrunner” in an early February 2026 NBC interview, reinforcing his status. Vance’s transformation from 2016 Trump critic—once labeling him “Hitler”—to loyal enforcer mirrors the movement’s evolution. This loyalty, combined with poll dominance, positions Vance to carry forward America First policies against globalist threats and fiscal mismanagement from the prior era.

Rubio’s Rising Profile and Dual Roles

Marco Rubio, 55, serves as both Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, a rare combination last seen with Henry Kissinger. His visibility surged in 2025 through “problem solver” actions like pressuring the Panama Canal and operations in Venezuela. Trump increasingly praises Rubio, mentioning him as a potential successor as early as May 2025. Rubio pledges support for Vance if he runs but keeps his own future open. His Florida roots, Cuban immigrant background, and diplomatic experience appeal to moderates while staying MAGA-aligned.

Unlike Vance’s base-driven style, Rubio offers institutional polish, broadening GOP appeal without diluting conservative principles. Both men competed for the 2024 VP slot and clashed with Trump in 2016—Rubio calling him a “fraud”—before full alignment. Their close friendship shows no rift, with Rubio deferring publicly as Trump balances competition.

Implications for GOP and Trump’s Legacy

These “parlor games” prevent Trump from becoming a lame-duck president, fueling 2028 buzz ahead of midterms. Short-term, they maintain GOP cohesion; long-term, they test MAGA continuity via Vance against Rubio’s potential pivot. Democrats face a “difficult” ticket either way. Vance represents industrial workers frustrated by inflation and overspending; Rubio counters with family values and anti-globalism wins. Trump, constitutionally barred from a third term, acts as kingmaker without rushing.

Expert views align: advisers comfortable with Vance on top or reverse, while media like Politico notes Rubio may back Vance later. Critics like ex-Rep. Walsh label Vance a “sycophant,” but consensus favors Vance with Rubio positioned strongly. This internal dynamic reinforces Trumpism, ensuring conservative victories endure beyond 2029.