In just two years, the number of young adults in America identifying as transgender has dropped by nearly half—a seismic shift in social identity that leaves experts and the public grasping for explanations and implications.
Story Highlights
- Transgender and nonbinary identification among young adults plunged 50% from 2022 to 2024
- Multiple independent surveys and academic analyses confirm the decline
- Researchers debate causes, with mental health and cultural shifts under scrutiny
- Impacts span mental health, campus policies, advocacy, and future trends
Transgender Identification Rates Plummet: A Statistical Earthquake
American young adults, especially college-aged individuals, reached a peak in transgender and nonbinary identification in 2022. By 2024, multiple datasets—national surveys, university studies, and expert analyses—show a 50% drop in the number of 18–22-year-olds identifying as transgender or nonbinary. Data from the Cooperative Election Study, FIRE, and elite universities like Brown and Andover Phillips Academy confirm this sweeping reversal, challenging assumptions about the trajectory of LGBTQ+ identity among youth.
REPORT: Number of young adults identifying as transgender plunges by nearly half in two years pic.twitter.com/vGdu2qfVxk
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 22, 2025
Researchers Eric Kaufmann and Jean Twenge independently analyzed national and university survey data, finding consistent results. Twenge’s work, grounded in the CES dataset, revealed that both transgender and nonbinary identification fell by more than half in the same two-year window. Kaufmann, leading the CHSS report, described the trend as “trans identification is in free fall among the young.” These findings have rippled across media, with public figures amplifying the data and sparking intense debate over causes and consequences.
Roots of the Rise and Decline: Social, Political, and Mental Health Currents
The surge in transgender and nonbinary identification during the 2010s and early 2020s coincided with increased social acceptance, visible activism, and supportive campus policies. Surveys consistently tracked a steady rise until 2022, which many attributed to a climate of affirmation and broad cultural shifts. However, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced new dynamics, with mental health crises among youth correlating with higher rates of LGBTQ+ identification. As post-pandemic conditions improved, researchers suggest that better mental health may have contributed to the sharp decline in trans and nonbinary identity, though causality remains unproven.
Political pressure and cultural debates over transgender rights reached fever pitch in recent years, influencing the social environment for young adults. The decline is most pronounced in college settings, where institutional surveys corroborate national trends. No prior documented drop of this magnitude in LGBTQ+ identification has occurred, making the current reversal an unparalleled phenomenon in the history of American social identity.
Debating Causes: Mental Health, Cultural Shifts, and Methodological Puzzles
Kaufmann points to compositional changes in the youth population and post-pandemic mental health improvements as possible drivers, but emphasizes the need for caution. Twenge stresses that societal acceptance and changing cultural dynamics may play roles, yet insists the full story remains elusive. Notably, academic analyses found no clear link between the decline and factors such as social media use, religious revival, or political conservatism. Some commentators describe the trend as a “post-progressive” cultural shift, while others argue that changes in survey methodology could be influencing results.
Number of young adults identifying as transgender plunges by nearly half in two years https://t.co/UL2ydn4NHl #FoxNews
— Louise Stevens (@LouiseS88394) October 22, 2025
Experts agree on the reliability of the data, citing multiple independent sources and transparent methodologies. Still, some datasets show stabilization or even slight rebounds in 2025, raising questions about whether the decline represents a lasting generational shift or a temporary correction. The debate continues, with researchers and commentators urging further investigation to clarify long-term implications.
Societal Impact: Policy, Healthcare, and the Future of Youth Identity
The immediate effects of this decline are reverberating through campus policies, advocacy organizations, and mental health services. Reduced visibility and representation for transgender and nonbinary youth have prompted reevaluation of support programs and funding priorities. Educational institutions and healthcare providers are adapting to changing demand, while LGBTQ+ advocacy groups recalibrate their strategies in light of shifting demographics.
Politically, the drop in identification rates may influence debates over transgender rights, youth healthcare policies, and educational approaches. Long-term, experts predict a re-examination of social, educational, and public health strategies for supporting LGBTQ+ youth. The broader media and publishing industries are already adjusting coverage, reflecting the evolving narrative around youth gender identity.
