President Trump’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities could temporarily push gas prices to $3.50 per gallon, but experts say any spike would be short-lived despite Iran’s threats to close a critical global oil passage.
Key Takeaways
- GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan predicts gas prices might rise to $3.40-$3.50 nationally following U.S.-Iran tensions, but increases would be temporary
- The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global petroleum consumption, is unlikely to be closed by Iran as it would devastate their own economy
- Recent oil prices initially spiked after U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities but have since declined as markets believe Iran won’t risk closing the critical strait
- China receives 40-50% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, creating strong economic pressure against any prolonged Iranian disruption
- Consumers are already feeling the strain of higher gas prices, with some reporting difficult budget choices between fuel and essentials like food
Experts Dismiss Fears of Massive Gas Price Spike
Following President Trump’s decisive action against Iranian nuclear facilities, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan has addressed widespread concerns about potential gas price surges. While prices may increase in the short term, De Haan emphasized that any significant spike would be temporary. The Iranian Parliament has voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, which would disrupt a passage that handles approximately 20% of global petroleum consumption. However, economic realities make a prolonged closure highly unlikely.
“If Iran mentions closing the Strait of Hormuz, you can see a quick spike in oil past the $80 barrel mark. That could bring a national average of $3.40 to $3.50. If they’re mildly successful in carrying that out, oil could go even higher, but it would likely be temporary,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
Economic Reality Limits Iran’s Options
The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for global oil markets, but experts point out that Iran would suffer catastrophically from closing this vital shipping lane. China, which purchases nearly half of its oil through this route, would likely exert significant pressure on Iran to maintain the flow of petroleum. This economic reality serves as a powerful deterrent against any prolonged disruption, regardless of political tensions. Vice President JD Vance highlighted this fundamental constraint on Iran’s options in recent comments.
“Their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. If they want to destroy their own economy, it can cause disruption in the world. I think that would be their decision, but why would they do that?” said JD Vance.
Energy market experts agree with this assessment. John Mohs noted, “Think about it, China gets between 40 and 50% of their oil through there. That would be economic suicide to the Iranians.”
Current Impact on American Consumers
While the most extreme scenarios appear unlikely, Americans are already experiencing the financial strain of rising gas prices. In Connecticut, prices have increased by eight cents over the past week, averaging $3.19 per gallon. This early summer rise, occurring sooner than usual seasonal patterns, has forced many consumers to make difficult financial choices. The situation highlights how international conflicts directly impact household budgets across America, with the costs ultimately passed down to everyday citizens.
“I just had to literally divide my food costs, costs for the kids, to make sure I can adequately fit enough gas in my car,” said Karahi Hood, expressing the difficult choices many Americans are facing.
Another resident, Ray Knighton, voiced frustration shared by many Americans: “It’s kind of ridiculous, you know, with the cost of everything going up constantly.”
Market Stabilization Expected
For now, experts predict a modest increase in gas prices, with estimates ranging from 3-5 cents in the coming days to potentially 10-15 cents over the week. De Haan characterized the market’s initial reaction as a “knee jerk” response that would not persist. The current tensions have already caused both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices to rise, though they’ve fallen back after an initial surge following the U.S. strikes. Unless Iran takes drastic action to disrupt oil shipments, Americans should expect only gradual increases rather than dramatic spikes at the pump.
“Motorists will likely continue seeing a slow but steady increase in gas prices for now. You don’t really have to worry about massive spikes just yet,” said Patrick De Haan, offering some reassurance to concerned consumers.
