Eastern Europe Rethinks Disarmament Pact: Geopolitical Tensions Mounting

Soldiers in uniform and boots standing in formation.

Four NATO countries bordering Russia announced plans to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines, citing increased security threats from Russia and Belarus as they seek to bolster defenses amid ongoing regional tensions.

Key Takeaways

  • Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty that bans anti-personnel landmines due to increased security threats from Russia and Belarus.
  • These four NATO members share borders with Russia and have been among the strongest supporters of Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
  • Major military powers including Russia, China, and the United States have never signed the 1997 treaty, which has over 160 signatories worldwide.
  • Defense ministers from the four countries stated the regional security situation has “fundamentally deteriorated” since they joined the treaty.
  • Despite withdrawing, the countries affirm their continued commitment to international humanitarian laws and civilian protection during conflicts.

Growing Threats on NATO’s Eastern Flank

In a joint statement that signals a significant shift in defense strategy, the defense ministers of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania unanimously recommended withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention. The four nations, all NATO members that share borders with Russia or its ally Belarus, cited a dramatically changed security environment in Eastern Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The regional security situation has, according to their statement, “fundamentally deteriorated” since they initially signed the anti-landmine treaty between 1999 and 2012.

The Ottawa Treaty, which came into force in 1997, prohibits the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines and has garnered over 160 signatories worldwide. However, major military powers including Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and the United States never joined the agreement. The Baltic states signed by 2005, with Poland following in 2012. Their decision to withdraw reflects growing concerns about their ability to defend their territories against potential Russian aggression as the conflict in Ukraine continues into its third year.

Strategic Military Reassessment

The defense ministers stressed that their withdrawal is motivated by the need for greater flexibility in defending NATO’s eastern flank. “With this decision, we are sending a clear message: our countries are prepared and can use every necessary measure to defend our territory and freedom,” the ministers stated in their joint declaration. This move comes as all four nations have substantially increased their military spending and support for Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion began.

According to reports, the Baltic states and Poland rank among the highest donors of aid to Ukraine as a percentage of their GDP. The decision to withdraw from the treaty represents a strategic calculation about the changing nature of warfare in Eastern Europe. Since 2022, these nations have repeatedly warned about the potential for Russian aggression to extend beyond Ukraine if not decisively checked by NATO and Western allies. The ability to deploy anti-personnel mines could provide an additional layer of defense along their borders.

Humanitarian Concerns and Global Context

Despite their planned withdrawal from the treaty, all four countries emphasized their continued commitment to international humanitarian laws and civilian protection during armed conflicts. This qualification aims to address concerns from humanitarian organizations that have long advocated for the ban on landmines due to their indiscriminate nature and persistent danger to civilian populations long after conflicts end. According to the UN, Ukraine has become the most heavily mined country in the world following Russia’s invasion.

A recent report by Landmine Monitor indicated that landmines were still being used in 2023 and 2024 by countries such as Russia, Myanmar, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine, although a signatory to the Ottawa Treaty, has received landmines from the United States and has struggled to comply with treaty obligations during the ongoing conflict. The treaty specifically prohibits withdrawal if a nation is actively involved in armed conflict, a provision intended to prevent countries from deploying mines during wartime after having previously agreed to the ban.