The Pentagon launches a 30-day review of the $368 billion AUKUS submarine deal, threatening to unravel a cornerstone of America’s Pacific alliance strategy and leaving Australia without nuclear submarine capability as China’s military influence grows.
Key Takeaways
- The Pentagon is reviewing the AUKUS submarine deal to ensure alignment with President Trump’s “America First” agenda, potentially jeopardizing the trilateral security pact.
- Former Australian Prime Ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull criticize the agreement as “poorly conceived” and urge Australia to seize this opportunity to exit the pact.
- The agreement, projected to cost Australia up to $368 billion by the mid-2050s, faces significant challenges including US shipbuilding capacity concerns and increasing skepticism from defense officials.
- Australia has pledged $3 billion to modernize U.S. shipyards but may be left without viable alternatives for nuclear submarine capability if the deal collapses as China’s military strength grows.
- The review has sparked criticism for potentially undermining trust with allies while supporters argue the deal is essential for countering China’s influence in the Pacific.
Pentagon Launches AUKUS Review
The Department of Defense has initiated a comprehensive 30-day review of the AUKUS submarine agreement, examining whether the trilateral security pact aligns with President Trump’s “America First” agenda. The review focuses on assessing the feasibility of the deal’s logistics, financial structure, and compatibility with America’s national security interests. The Pentagon specifically aims to determine if the U.S. defense industrial base can meet the commitments without compromising America’s own naval capabilities. This evaluation comes amid growing concerns about America’s ability to fulfill its obligations under the agreement while maintaining its own submarine fleet.
“The US department of defense has announced a 30-day review of the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal ensuring that this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America first’ agenda,” a Pentagon official said, “and that the defense industrial base is meeting our needs”.
Former Australian Leaders Question Deal’s Viability
Former Australian Prime Ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull have emerged as vocal critics of the AUKUS agreement, suggesting that the Pentagon’s review provides Australia with an opportunity to withdraw from what they describe as a poorly conceived procurement program. Keating, particularly scathing in his assessment, characterized the deal as “the most poorly conceived defence procurement program ever adopted by an Australian government.” Turnbull, whose pre-existing submarine deal with France was discarded in favor of AUKUS, urged Australia to “wake up” and conduct its own review of the agreement, following the lead of both the US and UK.
“Keating said that the review “might very well be the moment Washington saves Australia from itself … from the most poorly conceived defence procurement program ever adopted by an Australian government”,” said Paul Keating, Former Australian Prime Minister.
Former Foreign Minister Bob Carr has joined these critics, suggesting that Australia and the US could mutually agree to withdraw from AUKUS without damaging the broader alliance. Critics argue the agreement is unaffordable, risky, and potentially compromises Australia’s sovereignty and defense capabilities. Senator David Shoebridge has advocated for more independent Australian defense policies, questioning the wisdom of massive financial commitments to the US and UK naval industries.
Financial and Industrial Capacity Concerns
The AUKUS submarine deal, valued at up to $368 billion through the mid-2050s, faces significant industrial capacity challenges. The agreement calls for Australia to purchase Virginia-class submarines from the United States, with the first delivery expected in 2032. However, serious questions have emerged about whether American shipyards can meet these commitments while simultaneously fulfilling US Navy requirements. Australia has pledged $3 billion to modernize U.S. shipbuilding facilities, but Pentagon officials remain concerned about diverting critical naval assets to allies while America faces its own fleet challenges.
“But the biggest loser if the deal were to collapse may be Australia, defense experts said: The country has no viable alternative in terms of its nuclear submarine capability even as Canberra has grown increasingly concerned about China’s growing military strength,” said Mathias Hammer, Defense Expert.
Political Divisions Over AUKUS Future
The Pentagon review has sparked frustration among congressional Democrats, particularly those representing districts with major shipyards who see AUKUS as both a strategic necessity and an economic opportunity. Connecticut Representative Joe Courtney warned that abandoning the agreement would damage America’s global trustworthiness. Secretary of State Marco Rubio continues to support the deal, creating potential tensions within the administration. The review is being led by Elbridge Colby, a known skeptic of AUKUS, who has questioned whether the agreement truly benefits American interests while acknowledging the importance of maintaining allied relationships.
“To walk away from all the sunk costs invested by our two closest allies, Australia and the United Kingdom, will have far-reaching ramifications on our trustworthiness on the global stage,” said Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney.
Beyond submarines, the AUKUS partnership encompasses cooperation on quantum computing, hypersonic weapons development, and other advanced military technologies aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The UK recently committed over $8 billion to enhance its submarine-building capacity specifically to support AUKUS objectives. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently met with his Australian counterpart Richard Marles, who insisted the program remains “on track” despite the review, highlighting the diplomatic tensions the reassessment has created.
